Solar panels are generating record amounts of power—will tariffs change that?

Solar panels are producing record amounts of power. In just a few years, the standard for solar panel power output has dramatically shifted upward, driven by advances in efficiency and larger panel sizes. According to EnergySage Intel’s Solar & Storage Marketplace Report, 33% of quotes in the second half of 2024 included panels rated above 450 watts—up from just 1% a year earlier.

But in 2025, looming trade policy changes could hinder the supply of high-output solar panels. Tariffs introduced by the Trump administration are expected to significantly raise the cost of imported solar components, pushing some solar companies to rely on existing product stores rather than purchase new, high-output technology. 

As the U.S. solar market pushes ahead, future panel output trends may depend on how well the industry navigates these new headwinds.

One thing was clear as we rounded out the first half of the decade: Low-output panels are being phased out quickly. Just five years ago, an overwhelming 93% of solar panels quoted on the EnergySage Marketplace were 310-370 watts in rated power output. By the second half of 2024, that percentage was down to 0%, with only 14% of quotes including solar panels with outputs of 400 watts and below. 

Panels have continued to increase in power output for two key reasons:

1. They’re getting bigger. Larger panels are more cost-effective to manufacture and install. 

2. They’re getting more efficient. The more efficient a solar panel is at converting solar power into usable energy, the higher its output. As solar panel technology continues to advance, panels are producing more power per square foot, minimizing the surface area required for solar energy systems. 

“As panel technologies improve, more homeowners are being offered higher-output systems—meaning fewer panels, more power, and a better return on investment,” said Emily Walker, Director of Content and Insights at EnergySage.

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The continued trend toward higher-output solar panels in 2025 hinges largely on the solar industry's response to its latest challenge: Trump’s new tariffs. These tariffs, reaching up to 3,521% on imports from key Southeast Asian suppliers, threaten to send solar prices soaring.

The extent of supply chain disruption due to these tariffs remains uncertain. Some solar companies are mitigating impacts by tapping into substantial stockpiles of solar panels. In early April, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. had accumulated 40-50 gigawatts of surplus solar panels as of the end of 2024, which may help insulate the solar industry from massive price hikes.

However, reliance on a warehoused solar panel supply could limit the pace of U.S. solar panel technology growth in the immediate future. Stockpiles are finite. As companies deplete their stores, the availability of newer, higher-wattage panels may be constrained. 

“We’re closely watching how inventory strategies and upcoming tariffs may shape this trend,” said Walker. “Solar panel technology will continue to advance globally. But if installers quote stockpiled inventory to avoid tariff price hikes, the trend toward higher output solar panels may slow its growth in the U.S.”

Most popular 450+ watt solar panels aren’t domestically manufactured

Tariffs aim to stimulate domestic manufacturing, which is ultimately a good thing. In theory, more U.S. production translates to more American jobs and products that meet higher quality standards. The problem is that the U.S. isn’t currently equipped to pick up where foreign manufacturers left off.

On EnergySage, most of the high-output panels above 450 watts that were included in quotes in the second half of 2024 were from REC, the most quoted solar panel brand. With manufacturing in Singapore, REC should not be subject to the 3,500% tariffs facing many other Southeast Asian countries. Still, it will likely face the standard 10% tariffs. 

Among the top 10 quoted solar panel brands on EnergySage in the second half of 2024, five— Qcells, Jinko Solar, Silfab Solar, SEC Solar, and Mission Solar—are manufacturing at least a portion of their panels in the U.S. However, while some of these brands offer residential panels 450 watts and above, they aren’t frequently quoted on EnergySage—at least not yet.

The number of U.S.-made solar panels has increased thanks to incentives like those included in the Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, but domestic output still falls far short of international supply. Even panels made in the U.S. incorporate imported components, making them subject to tariffs as well. 

The challenge lies in scaling up domestic production to meet demand, which will take time and money. In the meantime, solar companies may either raise prices to cover the cost of imported technology or rely on older inventory already sitting in warehouses.

The solar industry is historically resilient

Recent political and economic developments are already influencing prices and disrupting market dynamics. While the full extent of supply chain effects remains to be seen, the solar industry is no stranger to navigating uncertainty.

As a relatively young sector, solar has endured its fair share of turbulence—so much so that it’s been dubbed the "solarcoaster." From the COVID-19 pandemic to previous rounds of tariffs, the industry has consistently adapted and continued to grow.

“We’ve been here before, we adapted, and we’ll do it again,” Aaron Nichols, advocacy specialist at Exact Solar, told EnergySage. 

The COVID-19 pandemic caused global supply chain disruptions, shuttered factories, and triggered material shortages, delays, and price spikes. Yet solar installations in the U.S. increased by 43% between 2019 and 2020 as panel efficiency and output improved. 

Trump also imposed tariffs on the solar sector in 2018, which led to the loss of an estimated 10.5 GW of potential solar deployment. Still, the industry grew: The country’s solar capacity more than doubled during Trump’s first term in office. 

If history is any guide, higher-output panels will remain the norm, even if the path to get them gets a little steeper. Today’s flavor of unprecedented times will inevitably impact the market, but solar has never been a static industry, and it’s unlikely to start now.