How many solar panels do I need for heat pumps?

Heat pumps are an incredible investment in your home's energy efficiency, but the savings don't have to stop there. Power your heat pump with solar panels, and you can cover your heating and cooling costs with free, clean energy you generate yourself—lowering your utility bills and carbon footprint at the same time.

More than half of a typical home’s energy use goes toward heating and cooling. The cheaper you can get your electricity, the greater the chance you’ll save money in the long run by switching to a heat pump for your heating and cooling. 

So, how do you size a solar power system to match a heat pump's needs? We’ll show you how to estimate.

Based on an EnergySage analysis of a Department of Energy database, the median annual electricity use for a typical heat pump in the U.S. is about 5,475 kWh per year. The likely range is anywhere between 400 kWh and 22,500 kWh, depending on your house, climate, and some details about the heat pump itself. We get into a lot of those nuances and possibilities in another article, but you can use the table below for some rough estimates.

Average heat pump electricity usage (kWh)

Heating efficiency: sCOP 2.5. Cooling efficiency: SEER 15. Lower percentiles are more likely to represent smaller, more efficient homes. Units in kWh.

All of these figures assume that a heat pump will be your home's sole heating and cooling system. Today’s high-performance models can actually pull that off, even in extremely cold climates.

Of course, you’d budget for less energy use if you're installing a mini-split for only a part of your home. We’ve also made estimates (based on the DOE database) for the amount of electricity a heat pump might use per square foot, which can be a useful way to size a partial-home system.

If you have backup or hybrid heating for cold weather, the math shifts: electric strip heat will increase electricity usage, while a fossil-fuel backup (like a standard furnace) will decrease it. An HVAC pro can help you get a more accurate estimate for those scenarios.

How much electricity your panels produce depends on your location and your roof—some parts of the U.S. get more sunshine (and snow) than others, and some roofs are laid out for better sun exposure, depending on the direction, tilt, and shading.

Installers on the EnergySage Marketplace include production estimates in their quotes. We've analyzed those estimates and put together regional guidelines for typical annual solar panel output across the country.

These numbers assume you’d install 450-watt solar panels. 

Average production per solar panel by U.S. region

Based on EnergySage Marketplace data, updated June 2026.

Remember, these are just estimates. Your solar installer might make different projections based on your roof shape, nearby shading, and the local weather. 

They also don’t account for the cash value of your solar energy, which can vary based on incentives and billing policies. (More on that below)

Once you have a sense of how much energy your heat pump will need and how much energy each panel can produce in your area, the math is straightforward: divide your estimated annual heat pump energy use by your region's estimated annual production per panel.

The estimates vary quite a bit depending on your home and climate, so plug in your own numbers for the most accurate result. A few examples:

Panels needed to power a heat pump

Here's how those panel counts translate across a range of system sizes:

Number of solar panels needed for specific system sizes

Assumes 450W solar panels.

If your utility offers one-to-one net metering (that is, full credit for the solar power your panels produce and send to the grid on your electric bill), then your estimate is complete. That’s how many solar panels you'll need to match your heat pump’s energy consumption.

The math might look different if your utility company offers a partial billing credit—often called net billing (they buy your excess solar for a discount). 

One option is to install extra panels to compensate. This makes sense when the utility's markdown is modest (like in Michigan). But when the billing penalty is steep (like under California's NEM 3.0 rules), adding battery storage usually makes more sense, so you can keep more of your solar production instead of giving it away to the utility company at a loss.