Tesla dominated the home battery market—will its reign last?

Love it or hate it, Tesla is quite the disruptor. Within its first year on the market, the Powerwall 3 battery energy storage system outsold longtime leader Enphase—the first company to do so in four years.  

According to EnergySage Intel’s Solar & Storage Marketplace Report, Tesla became the most quoted battery brand in the second half of 2024. And because the Powerwall 3 includes an integrated hybrid inverter that works for both solar and storage, Tesla also became the second-most quoted inverter brand. With batteries increasingly being added to solar systems—the national battery attachment rate jumped to 45%, an all-time high—Tesla’s surge played a major role in driving down both storage and solar prices on EnergySage.

But the Powerwall’s success might fade as quickly as it rose. Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings report revealed a 71% drop in profits, highlighting the consequences of CEO Elon Musk’s controversial political activities. While Tesla’s energy generation and storage business grew year-over-year, new tariffs under Trump’s administration are expected to hit the solar and storage industries hard, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions, price hikes, longer wait times, and a dip in customer interest.

The launch of the Powerwall 3 triggered rapid and significant changes on the EnergySage Marketplace. In the second half of 2024, Tesla became the most quoted battery brand and expanded its inverter share by over 1,000%.

Tesla was the most quoted battery on EnergySage

Enphase and Tesla have long dominated EnergySage’s battery market, but in the second half of 2024, Tesla outpaced Enphase for the first time since 2021. Together, the two brands occupied a whopping 92% of Marketplace share, up from their previous high of 79% in the first half of 2024. Tesla alone was included in 63% of quotes that included solar and batteries. 

The Powerwall 3 supercharged Tesla’s inverter share, too

Thanks to the Powerwall 3’s integrated inverter, Tesla’s inverter share skyrocketed by 1,100% year-over-year. This massive Marketplace disruption is even more impressive considering Tesla inverters are primarily included in quotes with batteries, which limits their Marketplace share opportunity. Still, over one-third of all quotes included Tesla. 

Tesla drove higher battery attachment rates

While expressed interest in storage has remained relatively flat, the battery attachment rate among EnergySage customers jumped to 45%, more than doubling year-over-year. As more solar shoppers add batteries, Tesla’s influence on the broader residential solar market continues to grow. 

While the Powerwall 3 wasn’t the cheapest battery on the Marketplace in the second half of 2024, Tesla’s reputation for affordability helped drive its sharp rise in market share. And it didn’t just make batteries more attractive—it also made solar quotes look cheaper.

The three most affordable solar panel and inverter combinations featured Tesla inverters, likely thanks to their integration with the Powerwall 3. Tesla’s battery systems include a hybrid inverter that supports both solar and storage, reducing the need for separate components. Instead of buying one inverter for your panels and another for your battery, you get a two-for-one deal with Tesla’s system.

Most quotes that include Tesla’s hybrid inverter roll its cost into the battery portion of the quote (measured in $/kWh) rather than the solar portion (measured in $/W). This pricing structure helps explain the lower solar costs. Thanks to this dynamic, the median price for systems that included batteries dropped from $2.59/W in the first half of 2024 to $2.40/W in the second half—that’s $0.25/W lower than the median price for systems that didn’t include batteries.

To capture how the battery market shifted across the country, EnergySage analyzed Marketplace quote data from the 10 states with the most cumulative residential storage capacity installed in 2024, according to Ohm Analytics. Tesla was the most quoted battery brand in all 10 states.

The median quoted system size increased in every state where Tesla overtook Enphase as the top battery choice. Meanwhile, battery prices fell across the board—except in Hawaii, where Tesla was already the most quoted battery brand in H1 2024.

Without a doubt, Tesla dominated the home battery market last year. However, 2025 appears poised to tell a different story. The company’s worse-than-expected Q1 earnings report revealed a stark 71% profit decline compared to last year, coinciding with a noticeable drop in Powerwall interest on EnergySage. Analysts and Elon himself attribute much of Tesla’s recent challenges to the CEO's political activities, with a few other key factors affecting Tesla’s battery energy storage segment in particular. 

CEO Elon Musk’s political activity is shifting customer sentiment

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Trump administration has soured plenty of customers on the Tesla brand. A CNBC survey found that about half of Americans view Tesla negatively. Reactions to Musk’s controversial approach to “government efficiency” range from Tesla owners selling their vehicles to anti-Tesla protests and vandalism.

Critically, many people who are highly positive about electric vehicles (EVs)—and presumably other clean energy technologies—are overwhelmingly negative about Tesla. In other words, much of Tesla’s core target market is shopping elsewhere, a trend that's becoming clear on EnergySage in 2025. This year, there's been an uptick in homeowners specifically requesting non-Tesla equipment in their quotes amidst Musk’s political controversy. Combined with ongoing battery supply shortages, Tesla’s brand backlash could erode its Marketplace share further.

“Tesla and Musk are difficult to separate. It’s amazing how his erratic behavior has affected my enjoyment of what is still a great piece of technology,” Zach from Massachusetts told EnergySage. “I won’t spend more money supporting a company and a brand antithetical to my beliefs.”

Pablo Valdivia, Vice President of Sales at Demand Construction, noticed a similar shift in customer preference. Last fall, his company ran a promotion allowing customers to switch from Tesla to Enphase at the same price point—with surprising results.

“Out of 100 projects, maybe two or three said yes. Everyone else preferred to wait for the Powerwall,” Valdivia shared. “When Elon Musk became involved in the government, people were more open to switching batteries. More than that, new customers come in saying they don’t want any Tesla products.”

Even Tesla itself said that “changing political sentiment” is at least partly to blame for its abysmal first quarter. Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush Securities, estimated that 15% to 20% of Tesla’s future demand is permanently damaged due to Musk’s involvement with DOGE.

“Tesla became a political symbol,” said Ives. “It’s been a dark cloud on Tesla.” Ives admitted that the brand damage caused by Musk’s political stint may be permanent, but he also noted that Musk stepping away from government involvement could help contain further fallout: “This is the time for Musk to draw the line in the sand.” 

Tariffs projected to hit battery energy storage hard

Political blowback isn't Tesla’s only headwind. The Trump administration’s tariffs are also poised to impact its energy business. 

Although Tesla manufactures its Powerwalls in Nevada, it sources many of its key materials internationally—including from China, the target of 145% tariffs. Lithium-ion batteries like the Powerwall 3 are particularly vulnerable to supply chain constraints and price increases. According to Valdivia, costs are already rising by over 20% for some products, with further increases projected this summer.

Tesla has acknowledged that tariffs will "have a relatively larger impact on our Energy business compared to automotive."

Tesla product delays will likely stretch longer

Trump’s tariffs will also likely worsen Tesla’s existing battery shortages and long wait times. Tesla was already facing significant delays of three to six months, and tariff-induced supply chain disruptions certainly won’t ease that. 

Asked if delays would worsen, Valdivia didn’t hesitate: "Definitely. It will."

He added that some installers have stopped offering the Powerwall 3 altogether due to fulfillment issues. "We’re still cleaning up the books from last year. We’re almost in May and still taking care of projects from October and November."

Even with the wait time and its CEO’s polarizing personality, Valdivia says the Powerwall 3 remains a compelling product for many homeowners.

"We still lead with it because it’s the best bang for the buck. Despite what’s going on, it’s still better for the customer—it has better pricing."